“Can Donald Trump catch up to Hillary Clinton in the polls before Election Day?

I’ve asked that question a few times over the past couple months, and for much of August and September the answer has been a qualified yes. But recent events -- a bad performance at the first presidential debate, the release of an interview showing Trump making lewd comments about women, and a middling second debate performance, to name a few -- have widened Clinton’s lead. And based on quantitative polling benchmarks I developed in August, a Trump comeback is improbable.”