"Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1..." — Harry Enten

Quote
Catalog

Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error.
The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.

— Harry Enten

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer

2016 Election Hillary Clinton Donald J. Trump Politics Horserace

About This Quote

Harry Enten from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight explains why a shrinking number of undecideds and third party voters bodes well for Hillary Clinton.

More from Harry Enten

View all quotes

Quote
Catalog

If the 2020 election were held today and it were solely a referendum on Trump, Texas would…

Quote
Catalog

We’re almost done. After two debates full of memorable moments such as Donald Trump saying…

Quote
Catalog

Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive…

& W WM W W & WMWW W& WWW& WWWW WWM WWW W KWW& W K WMW WW MWW MMW WW WW WMW WW& KWM& W K WMW WMWW W MWW W W & WWW WWW& W W WWW KWWW W W WWW W& W W W W W WK W &W W W &W W W W W KW W W W WK WW WW W &W W W W W W KW WK W W W W W &W WWWW W W W WK W W WM&WW W& W W WK &W W K W WW W W WW W W W W W & W W W & W W W WW W W WW W W W WW W W W WK WW W W W& W W WK W W W K K & &W MW WKK K WM WW W W &W WM W KW MW W W W K WW K WW KW& WK W & MW& KM W M& WW& WWK M & K & & & && MW W & & & && K K K W W WW WW & K& K &K && & && &K K && KM W M MK KKK W &W KW W W W WK WW WW WM W W W WW WM WW WW WWK W W W WK W W W KW MW W W W& W W W W W W W W W W W WW & W W WW MW W W &W W W W W W W W W & WW WW W WW W W&W W W K W W W W W W WK W W W W & W W W WW W & &W W W WW KK W W & W WW W W WMW M K &WWW W W W &K W W W WMW K W W W W KWWW W K &WWW W&W M W& KWWW WWW W W WWW W WWMW W W K W M W KW W &WKWW W MW W WK W&MW W W W W W WW KW WKWW W &W W &W WW WW W WKKW WMKW &W W WKWW&WW M& W KM W MW W WW W W W &KW WW W W W W W W W W M W W W W W W W W W W W WM&W &W W WKMW W &W WMWW WWKW W W W M& W W&WW W W W W W W W W&&W WW&W W W W W W WK W MW &MMMMMMMMW&MMWWM&WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMMWW&&&&MWMMMMMWWM&&&MMMW&& M&KKKK&KKKKKKKKK K&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&K &&&&&&&&&&K MWWWWWWWWWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW W&&&MMMMMMMMMMK &MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM&&K KMMMMMMMWMWWWW& WWWWWWWWWWWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW WMMMMMMMMM&&K KWWWWWWMMMWWWM&K K&MMMMMMMMMMMMWM WWWWWWWWWWWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW MMMMMMMMMM&K KWWMM& WWWWWWWMKKKKK&K &MMMMMMMMMMMMMW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWK KWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW &&MMMMMM&&&K &M&KK &MMMMMMMMMMMMMW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWMMWWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWWW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW M&MMMM& &&&&K MWWM &MMMMMMMMMMMMMW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMMWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWW K& WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW &&MM& MWM&K K K&K KMMMMMMMMMMMMMW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMMWWWWMMWWWWWWWWWWW WWWWWWW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW K &WMK WWMMK K&MMM&MMMMMM&&W WWWWWWWWWWWWWWW&MWWWWMMWWWWWWWWWWW MWWWWWWM &WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW &M&K &WWWWWW &&&&&&&MMM&&&M WWWWWWWWWWWWWWW&MMWWWMMWWWWWWWWWWW MW W KWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMW M& WWWWWWWM K&&&&&&&&&&&&M

: : :

} < * } } *} * * < } * } * } } < * * * * * } } } * * * * < < } * }* } } } }* < < }} * * * } } * * * < < < * } } < < < } } } * * } *} } * * <} * < } * < * } *< } < } * } ** }* } } * < * < < < } * < ** ** } * * } } < * * < * < < *< ~ * < < < ~~ < ~ < < } < < < } ~ ~ ~~ ~ < * < < < * ~ } <* * ~ < < } < ~ < ~ ~ * * ~ ~ * < < } < ~ < < ~ } < < * ~ ** << ~< * }***<<<<<<} } }}***} }********<<} }* } }*<*<*<<<*}} * }} *<<<<<* *< * <<<<<<< }} **<} } } *<<<* }}*****<* } **<*} } ~ } } }**}} }*<*} ******}***<*} **} *<<<<<< *~ <}} }}*}**********<<******}**<<<<<<<} < }**}}*<~~<*}} }******<***<}}<<******<<<<<<<< } } *~ ~<<<<<*} }< ******<<***< ****<*}*<<<<<<<< } }

V o o o j o j Uj j j o V V U U j jj V o U U Vo j j UU oUU UU Vo V UU j U V oVU V Uo V VU VV U j V U V V Vo V V o V j U o oj V o VV o U o U UV j o V o Vj oU U U oV o V V V j j U j j o UU V j U V V V V V oVj jV Vo UVj U V j V o U Uj oV VU V V jV U U U o Vo U jU U o o VU V V V Ujo o V o V o j U o j V V V j U j oV j oj j j o UVUo o V j oo o U VV jV j o U U j VV j oV U VV V U jU j o o U V j j o j j o o o oo U U j U o U U o o o V j U j j U V V o U UU V o VV o j V j o j UU j o j o V o U V o V U V U o U o U V UVooVU Uj oVVoVU V o V UVj jooV UooVUUVo j Uoj jooo jV j VV UVj U Uoj oUUVj joojoU j o jjV VU UVoj jVVj jUUUo oVUUVoj oVUooU j o j UVVVVoV UUVo j jo oUVoj jV V j oU j j oo U Uo jU UUUo U j jj V o jV j j j o VU UVj V UVVVjU o j j jU jV UVj Uoj jU j j jV j U V U j jU Uooj Uj j o

M & K W MK && W & M & W & W &M K &K &W M & W W & K KM K K & M M & W W K W & && & &M WWWWWMWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWMWWWWWWW WWWWK WWWWWW KWMMWW MMMMMW&WMWWWWW WWWWW&WMWWMWW WMK MK & &&&&M MMMMMM&MM&WWWW WW WMWW&WMWWMWW MK KK &&&&& MMMMMM&&M&WWWW KMKKWMWM&WMWWMWW & WWWK KKKK& MMMMMM&KM&&WWW& MKWWWWMMWMWWMWW W&WWW&W K MW&MMMM M&KMWWW WW&WWMMWMWWMWW WWWWWWM KKKKK &W&MMMM &&KMW& MWWMMMW&&MMWWMWW WWWKMW KK &W&MMMM &&KMWKWWWWWWW&&MMMWMWWW KWW& K KW&MMWW &MK& WMKMKWMMWMWWW MW& K&& K KWMMWWW &M&MM KK&WMWWWWWW KWWKK K KKK KWMMWWW &MK&W W W&MWWMWWW MWWWK KK & KK KWMMMWWK&MK&W WWMKMMWWMWWW WWWWK KM &WMMWWW&&MKM &WWMMMMWWWWWW WWWWWW KMW &WMMMWW&MW& MW WWWMMWWWWWW WWWWWW& K K KMWK &W&M&WWM&M& WMMWWWWWW MKWWWK KMM &WMM&MWWWW WMWWWWWW WWW &W MWWWWWWK WWWWWWWW WWM MKK & MWWWWWWW & WWM

: : : : . , , : :: , , : : , . : : : : : , , : , : .: : : : . , . . . . : ,: :: . . ... ,::. . . : . ,,,..,. . . , : .,..,.. : . . ..., : . .. : :. ,,,. . : ,. : : : : . .: . . : , . . , : . . . : ..... .,,, . . : ,:. . .. . , :. :, :,. :. : ,, , : . : , , . : ,,:: . . . : , : : :

< * << ~~~~~~*~<<~ * <~ ~} ~ <~~ *}~} <*< } *}* ~ * } * * } ~ * * } *} ~ *}~ < * } < < *** } } ~} * } * } * <}< } } }< * < *} } < ~< } ~ * ~ << } <*~ < }< < ** } ~ < < ***< <<* } ~ }}}<< ****<*<}}} }**} }}}<*~*<*}<*} *<<<*< **<<****}~ ~~***}*~ }} }< *** ~* }* ~ < ~} <* } } } < ~ ~~ } ~ ~ } ~ ~ * ~ ~ ~ * < } ~ ~<*~~ ~ * <<~} <~<}} * } * ~ <*< } ~~< }~ * } <~~ ~ ~ }<<< } }~ < ~ }*< ~< }~~~< }< } * ~ ~ < * * ~* * ~~~~

U j V o VV j o j j U j UV jU V V U o o Vooo V o o Vj oVoooVU VVU V o V UjV o j oo jj o j V jj j o j oUj j V U o U oo j V j j jo o U oVoj U U U V oV U j V j j j V V o jj jVV o o U o j oj ooo o j jV o j j o VV U j U j Vj o j o V U o U jo j V j U j V U j Uj UUUU o U jV o U V j V U UUj V j o U o UUUj U o j U V UUUo U j U UU U UUUUo U o U j VUUV UU o UUo j VUVVUUo V VUVUo o o V UVoUUU VoUUUo U o V o Uo VV U UUUo U o j Voo V o o V j V o Uo o V o UU U Vo VUU V UUUUU U o j VVVjV o V j Vjo