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Quotes tagged ‘Horserace’

(6 total)

With a team of researchers including my University of Pennsylvania colleague Diana Mutz and the University of Massachusetts’ Seth Goldman, I’ve been conducting the Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics panel, a survey which has asked the same respondents questions about politics over almo…

— Dan Hopkins, fivethirtyeight.com

The thing that we are waiting to see though is that most of this notion that this race is tightening is coming from national polls, national tracking polls and so forth [...] but we are holding out hope that [...] we will get a lot more polls for the remainder of the campaign.

— Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because it’s all about the Electoral College, and that Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes. But this presumes that the states behave independently from national trends, when in fact they tend to move in ta…

— Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

Texas, in particular, can cause a potential Electoral College-popular vote skew because of its large and growing population. If the Democrat goes from losing Texas by 15 percentage points to losing it by 5 points instead, that produces a net gain of about 0.6 or 0.7 percentage points of the popular…

— Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our fore…

— Harry Enten, fivethirtyeight.com

Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate. And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice…

— Harry Enten, fivethirtyeight.com

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